Value bet: Eibar to win @ 2.40 – our chance 48% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEibar to win ✓48% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.98
Eldense vs Eibar preview and prediction
The match
Eldense host Eibar in the Segunda División on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Nuevo Pepico Amat. Eldense are 15th with 14 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Eibar sit 4th on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Eldense's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Sporting Gijon 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Eibar's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Celta de Vigo II 4–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Eibar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Eldense and 1.3 for Eibar. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Eldense 29%, draw 24%, Eibar 48%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Eibar to win at 2.40 – 48% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Eldense 0–1 Eibar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Eldense29%fair 3.50 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @2.90
Eibar48%fair 2.09 · @2.40
2.20Expected goals
0.91Eldense xG
1.29Eibar xG
47%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Eldense 0.9 – 1.3 Eibar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Eibar to win✓
48%
2.09
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Eibar / FT Eibar✓
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.98
–
Form
Eldense – last 6
WDLDLL
13 Sep
@ Sporting Gijon
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Mallorca
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Leganes
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Cadiz
2–2
D
17 Aug
@ Almeria
0–3
L
7 Aug
@ Albacete
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Eibar – last 6
WWWWLD
14 Sep
@ Celta de Vigo II
4–0
W
6 Sep
vs Granada CF
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ FC Andorra
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Valladolid
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Tenerife
1–3
L
8 Aug
@ Real Unión
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Eldense and Eibar.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Eldense vs Eibar?
On our numbers Eldense have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Eibar 48%.
How many goals will there be in Eldense vs Eibar?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Eldense vs Eibar?
Our predicted score is Eldense 0–1 Eibar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Eldense vs Eibar?
Eldense vs Eibar (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Nuevo Pepico Amat.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
