Value bet: Burgos to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurgos to win ✗39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.48
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos preview and prediction
The match
Sporting Gijon host Burgos in the Segunda División on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at El Molinón. Sporting Gijon are 7th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Burgos sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sporting Gijon's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Sabadell 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Burgos's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Cordoba 3–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Burgos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Sporting Gijon and 1.3 for Burgos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Burgos to win at 2.90 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sporting Gijon 1–1 Burgos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting Gijon35%fair 2.82 · @2.45
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.88
Burgos39%fair 2.58 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.21Sporting Gijon xG
1.29Burgos xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sporting Gijon 1.2 – 1.3 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burgos to win✗
39%
2.58
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burgos / FT Burgos✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.48
–
Form
Sporting Gijon – last 6
DLLLLL
17 Aug
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Valladolid
2–4
L
7 Aug
@ Racing Santander
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
0–5
L
25 Jul
@ Celta Vigo
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Marino de Luanco
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WDLWWW
16 Aug
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
8 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
1 Aug
vs Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Jul
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–0
W
31 May
vs FC Andorra
1–0
W
24 May
@ Cultural Leonesa
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Gijon and Burgos.
What is the prediction for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
On our numbers Sporting Gijon have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Burgos 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Sporting Gijon 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at El Molinón.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
