Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.35Odds
1
Value bet: Sevilla to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSevilla to win ✓63% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.95
Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC preview and prediction
The match
Sevilla host AD Ceuta FC in the Friendlies Clubs on Sunday 26 July, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Sevilla's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Cordoba 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AD Ceuta FC's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Albacete 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.3 for Sevilla and 0.6 for AD Ceuta FC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sevilla 63%, draw 14%, AD Ceuta FC 23%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Sevilla to win at 1.91 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sevilla 1–0 AD Ceuta FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sevilla63%fair 1.60 · @1.91
Draw14%fair 7.00 · @3.45
AD Ceuta FC23%fair 4.33 · @3.40
1.87Expected goals
1.31Sevilla xG
0.56AD Ceuta FC xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.3 – 0.6 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sevilla to win✓
63%
1.60
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.93 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.27
1.35 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sevilla / FT Sevilla✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.95
–
Form
Sevilla – last 6
DLWLWW
23 Jul
@ Cordoba
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Cracovia Krakow
0–1
L
11 Jul
vs Juventud Torremolinos
1–0
W
17 May
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 May
@ Villarreal
3–2
W
4 May
vs Real Sociedad
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
WWDDLD
30 May
vs Albacete
1–0
W
24 May
@ FC Andorra
2–0
W
9 May
vs Castellón
1–1
D
10 Apr
vs Real Sociedad II
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Eibar
0–3
L
1 Apr
@ Burgos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and AD Ceuta FC.
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 14% and AD Ceuta FC 23%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Sevilla 1–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC?
Sevilla vs AD Ceuta FC (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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