Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultColombia to win ✓67% · @1.42
Double chanceColombia or draw ✓86% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓20% · fair 4.95
Colombia vs Ghana preview and prediction
The match
The World Cup sees Colombia take on Ghana on Saturday 4 July, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT) at Arrowhead Stadium.
Form guide
Colombia's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Portugal 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ghana's last 5: LDWDL Most recently they lost to Croatia 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Colombia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Colombia and 0.5 for Ghana. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Colombia 67%, draw 19%, Ghana 14%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Colombia 1–0 Ghana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Colombia67%fair 1.50 · @1.42
Draw19%fair 5.27 · @4.20
Ghana14%fair 6.91 · @7.80
2.03Expected goals
1.55Colombia xG
0.49Ghana xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–016%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Colombia 1.5 – 0.5 Ghana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Colombia to win✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Double chance
Colombia or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.06
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Colombia / FT Colombia✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
20%
4.95
–
Form
Colombia – last 6
DWWWLL
28 Jun
vs Portugal
0–0
D
24 Jun
vs Congo DR
1–0
W
18 Jun
@ Uzbekistan
3–1
W
8 Jun
vs Jordan
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs France
1–3
L
27 Mar
vs Croatia
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ghana – last 6
LDWDLL
27 Jun
@ Croatia
1–2
L
23 Jun
@ England
0–0
D
18 Jun
vs Panama
1–0
W
2 Jun
@ Wales
1–1
D
23 May
@ Mexico
0–2
L
30 Mar
@ Germany
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colombia and Ghana.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Colombia vs Ghana?
On our numbers Colombia have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ghana 14%.
How many goals will there be in Colombia vs Ghana?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Ghana?
Our predicted score is Colombia 1–0 Ghana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Colombia vs Ghana?
Colombia vs Ghana (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Arrowhead Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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