Canada vs Morocco prediction & analysis
Morocco or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Morocco to win @ 1.84 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Canada 0.8 – 1.9 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Morocco travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 14% for Canada.
Canada have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Morocco have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (0.8 for Canada, 1.9 for Morocco). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Morocco or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Morocco to win at 1.84 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Morocco to win ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.84 ▲ |
| Double chance | Morocco or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Morocco ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Morocco / FT Morocco ✗ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.77 | – |
Form
Canada – last 6
| 28 Jun | @ South Africa | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Jun | @ Switzerland | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Jun | vs Qatar | 6–0 | W |
| 12 Jun | vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Rep. Of Ireland | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Jun | vs Uzbekistan | 2–0 | W |
Morocco – last 6
| 30 Jun | @ Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Jun | vs Haiti | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Jun | @ Scotland | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Jun | @ Brazil | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Norway | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Jun | vs Madagascar | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Canada and Morocco.
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What is the prediction for Canada vs Morocco?
Our pick is Morocco or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Canada vs Morocco?
On our numbers Canada have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Morocco 61%.
How many goals will there be in Canada vs Morocco?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Canada vs Morocco?
Canada vs Morocco (World Cup) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at NRG Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.