Championship · Northern-Ireland · Lakeview ParkLoughgall vs Newry City AFC prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Loughgall 1.6 – 1.5 Newry City AFC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Loughgall and Newry City AFC on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Loughgall have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.5 per game. Newry City AFC have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. Newry City AFC come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.6 for Loughgall, 1.5 for Newry City AFC). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.24.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Loughgall to win ✓ | 40% | 2.49 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.60 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Loughgall / FT Loughgall ✓ | 24% | 4.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 11.72 | – |
Form
Loughgall – last 6
| 25 Sep | @ Glenavon FC | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Armagh City | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Queen's University | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Ballinamallard United | 1–6 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Warrenpoint Town | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Ards | 2–1 | W |
Newry City AFC – last 6
| 25 Sep | vs H&W Welders | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Annagh United | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | @ Strabane Athletic | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sep | vs Armagh City | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Institute | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs Warrenpoint Town | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Loughgall and Newry City AFC.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 15 | +21 | 34 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 14 | +20 | 30 |
| 3 |  Newington Youth | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Queen's University | 15 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Newry City AFC | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Institute | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 15 | 0 | 21 |
| 8 |  Loughgall | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 9 |  H&W Welders | 14 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Ards | 15 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 |  Rathfriland | 14 | -10 | 16 |
| 13 |  Moyola Park | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 |  Dundela | 13 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 15 | -16 | 9 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Loughgall vs Newry City AFC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Loughgall vs Newry City AFC?
On our numbers Loughgall have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Newry City AFC 37%.
How many goals will there be in Loughgall vs Newry City AFC?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Loughgall vs Newry City AFC?
Loughgall vs Newry City AFC (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Lakeview Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.