League One · England · Stadium MK

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction & analysis

79%

Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Value bet: Milton Keynes Dons to win @ 1.67 – our chance 66% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultMilton Keynes Dons to win66% · @1.67

Double chanceMilton Keynes Dons or draw89% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–012% · fair 8.39

Win chances

Milton Keynes Dons66%fair 1.51 · @1.67

Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.70

Burton Albion11%fair 9.23 · @4.50

2.97Expected goals

2.16Milton Keynes Dons xG

0.81Burton Albion xG

60%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–012%

1–011%

2–110%

1–19%

3–09%

3–17%

From our goals model: Milton Keynes Dons 2.2 – 0.8 Burton Albion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Milton Keynes Dons are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 11% for Burton Albion.

Milton Keynes Dons have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Burton Albion have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. Milton Keynes Dons come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.0 goals (2.2 for Milton Keynes Dons, 0.8 for Burton Albion). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.27. For a bigger price, Milton Keynes Dons to win at 1.67 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Milton Keynes Dons to win	66%	1.51	1.67 ▲
Double chance	Milton Keynes Dons or draw	89%	1.12	1.18 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	60%	1.68	1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.77	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	65%	1.54	1.44
Half-time result	Milton Keynes Dons ahead at half-time	49%	2.03	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Milton Keynes Dons / FT Milton Keynes Dons	45%	2.24	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–0	12%	8.39	–

Form

Milton Keynes Dons – last 6

WWWWLW

7 Nov	vs Swindon Town	2–1	W
31 Oct	vs Doncaster	6–1	W
27 Oct	vs Bromley	4–1	W
24 Oct	@ Stevenage	1–0	W
20 Oct	@ Blackpool	0–2	L
17 Oct	vs Luton	2–1	W

2.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Burton Albion – last 6

WLWDDL

7 Nov	vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds	4–0	W
31 Oct	@ Wycombe	0–2	L
24 Oct	vs Leyton Orient	2–1	W
20 Oct	vs Bradford	0–0	D
17 Oct	@ Peterborough	2–2	D
10 Oct	@ Doncaster	0–1	L

1.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion.

League One table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9

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