League One · England · Lamex Stadium

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town prediction & analysis

74%

Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.25

8/10Rating

1.25Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultStevenage to win40% · @2.25

Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 10.09

Win chances

Stevenage40%fair 2.47 · @2.25

Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.25

Mansfield Town36%fair 2.80 · @2.90

2.62Expected goals

1.36Stevenage xG

1.26Mansfield Town xG

57%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%

1–010%

0–19%

2–18%

1–28%

0–07%

From our goals model: Stevenage 1.4 – 1.3 Mansfield Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Stevenage and Mansfield Town on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Stevenage have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Mansfield Town have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Stevenage, 1.3 for Mansfield Town). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.35.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Stevenage to win	40%	2.47	2.25
Double chance	Either team to win	76%	1.31	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	57%	1.75	1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.38	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	74%	1.35	1.25
Half-time result	Level at half-time	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Stevenage / FT Stevenage	23%	4.39	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	10%	10.09	–

Form

Stevenage – last 6

WDLWLW

7 Nov	@ Oxford United	1–0	W
31 Oct	@ Leicester	2–2	D
24 Oct	vs Milton Keynes Dons	0–1	L
20 Oct	vs Plymouth	3–0	W
17 Oct	@ Bradford	0–2	L
10 Oct	vs Wigan	1–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Mansfield Town – last 6

WDLWWD

7 Nov	vs Macclesfield	3–0	W
3 Nov	@ Wigan	0–0	D
31 Oct	vs Notts County	0–2	L
24 Oct	@ Blackpool	4–1	W
20 Oct	@ AFC Wimbledon	3–0	W
15 Oct	vs Oxford United	1–1	D

1.8Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town.

League One table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9

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