League One · England · Weston Homes Stadium

Peterborough vs Oxford United prediction & analysis

65%

Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53

6/10Rating

1.53Odds

Value bet: Oxford United to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultOxford United to win47% · @2.40

Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.50

GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.17

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–19% · fair 10.90

Win chances

Peterborough33%fair 3.02 · @2.50

Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.60

Oxford United47%fair 2.14 · @2.40

2.84Expected goals

1.27Peterborough xG

1.57Oxford United xG

62%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%

0–19%

1–29%

1–07%

2–17%

0–27%

From our goals model: Peterborough 1.3 – 1.6 Oxford United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Oxford United shade it despite being away from home – 47% to win, against 33% for Peterborough.

Peterborough have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.7 per game. Oxford United have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. Oxford United come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.8 goals (1.3 for Peterborough, 1.6 for Oxford United). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.55. For a bigger price, Oxford United to win at 2.40 is our value angle (47% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Oxford United to win	47%	2.14	2.40 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win	80%	1.25	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	62%	1.62	1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26	1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.75	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	65%	1.55	1.53
Half-time result	Level at half-time	41%	2.45	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Oxford United / FT Oxford United	27%	3.77	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1	9%	10.90	–

Form

Peterborough – last 6

LLLDLD

7 Nov	vs Reading	0–5	L
31 Oct	vs Luton	0–2	L
27 Oct	@ Bradford	0–2	L
24 Oct	@ Bromley	1–1	D
20 Oct	@ Huddersfield	1–4	L
17 Oct	vs Burton Albion	2–2	D

0.7Scored / game

2.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Oxford United – last 6

LWDWDW

7 Nov	vs Stevenage	0–1	L
4 Nov	vs Reading	2–0	W
31 Oct	@ Barnsley	1–1	D
27 Oct	vs Stockport County	1–0	W
24 Oct	vs Bradford	0–0	D
20 Oct	vs Wigan	2–1	W

1.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Peterborough and Oxford United.

League One table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9

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