League One · England · Home ParkPlymouth vs Burton Albion prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Plymouth 2.3 – 0.9 Burton Albion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Plymouth are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 13% for Burton Albion.
Plymouth have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Burton Albion have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. Plymouth come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.3 for Plymouth, 0.9 for Burton Albion). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.24.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Plymouth to win ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| Double chance | Plymouth or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Plymouth ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Plymouth / FT Plymouth ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.53 | – |
Form
Plymouth – last 6
| 22 Sep | vs Crystal Palace U21 | 5–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Blackpool | 4–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Barnsley | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Doncaster | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Sep | @ Leicester | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Bradford | 2–0 | W |
Burton Albion – last 6
| 22 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Mansfield Town | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Oxford United | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Cambridge United | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs AFC Wimbledon | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Notts County | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plymouth and Burton Albion.
League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
On our numbers Plymouth have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Burton Albion 13%.
How many goals will there be in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion (League One) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Home Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.