League One · England · Madejski StadiumReading vs Notts County prediction & analysis
Reading or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Reading to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Reading 1.9 – 1.1 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Reading hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 20% for Notts County.
Reading have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Notts County have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.9 for Reading, 1.1 for Notts County). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Reading or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.25. For a bigger price, Reading to win at 1.83 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Reading to win ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Reading or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Reading ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Reading / FT Reading ✗ | 37% | 2.72 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.06 | – |
Form
Reading – last 6
| 15 Sep | vs Brentford | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Cambridge United | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Blackpool | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Mansfield Town | 5–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | @ Stevenage | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ AFC Wimbledon | 0–0 | D |
Notts County – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Bradford | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Huddersfield | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Sep | @ Doncaster | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Burton Albion | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Luton | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Leicester | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Reading and Notts County.
League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Reading vs Notts County?
Our pick is Reading or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Reading vs Notts County?
On our numbers Reading have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Notts County 20%.
How many goals will there be in Reading vs Notts County?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Reading vs Notts County?
Reading vs Notts County (League One) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Madejski Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.