Value bet: Burton Albion to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNotts County to win ✓40% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.77
Notts County vs Burton Albion preview and prediction
The match
The League One sees Notts County take on Burton Albion on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Meadow Lane. Notts County are 17th with 14 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Burton Albion sit 15th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Notts County's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with Luton 2–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Burton Albion's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Leicester 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Burton Albion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Notts County and 1.3 for Burton Albion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Notts County 40%, draw 24%, Burton Albion 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Burton Albion to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Notts County 1–1 Burton Albion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Notts County40%fair 2.50 · @2.26
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.35
Burton Albion36%fair 2.76 · @3.00
2.68Expected goals
1.38Notts County xG
1.30Burton Albion xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Notts County 1.4 – 1.3 Burton Albion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Notts County to win✓
40%
2.50
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Notts County / FT Notts County✗
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.77
–
Form
Notts County – last 6
DDDDLL
22 Aug
@ Luton
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs Leicester
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Burnley
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Walsall
0–0
D
18 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
0–2
L
14 Jul
@ Randers FC
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Burton Albion – last 6
WDLWDL
22 Aug
@ Leicester
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Stevenage
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Blackburn
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Derby
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Solihull Moors
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Notts County and Burton Albion.
What is the prediction for Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Notts County vs Burton Albion?
On our numbers Notts County have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Burton Albion 36%.
How many goals will there be in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Our predicted score is Notts County 1–1 Burton Albion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Notts County vs Burton Albion (League One) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Meadow Lane.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
