Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.24Odds
1
Value bet: Akhmat to win @ 1.86 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAkhmat to win ✓63% · @1.86
Double chanceAkhmat or draw ✓85% · @1.24
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.98
Akhmat vs Fakel preview and prediction
The match
Akhmat host Fakel in the Cup on Tuesday 18 August, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at Akhmat-Arena.
Form guide
Akhmat's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to FC Krasnodar 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Fakel's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to CSKA Moscow 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Akhmat arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 August 2026, finished Fakel 0–0 Akhmat.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Akhmat and 0.6 for Fakel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Akhmat 63%, draw 22%, Fakel 15%.
Safer route: Akhmat or draw (85%) at 1.24.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.87.
Value angle: Akhmat to win at 1.86 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Akhmat or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.24, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Akhmat 1–0 Fakel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Akhmat63%fair 1.59 · @1.86
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.68
Fakel15%fair 6.85 · @4.35
2.30Expected goals
1.66Akhmat xG
0.63Fakel xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Akhmat 1.7 – 0.6 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Akhmat or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Akhmat vs Fakel?
On our numbers Akhmat have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fakel 15%.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs Fakel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Akhmat vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is Akhmat 1–0 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Akhmat vs Fakel?
Akhmat vs Fakel (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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