Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Southampton to win @ 1.84 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouthampton to win ✓65% · @1.84
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.44
Southampton vs Swansea preview and prediction
The match
Southampton host Swansea in the Championship on Tuesday 8 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT). Southampton are 7th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Swansea sit 6th on 26 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Southampton's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Lincoln 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Swansea's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Wrexham 0–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Swansea arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Southampton and 0.7 for Swansea. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Southampton to win at 1.84 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Southampton or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Southampton 1–0 Swansea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton65%fair 1.55 · @1.84
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.60
Swansea14%fair 7.23 · @4.00
2.65Expected goals
1.90Southampton xG
0.75Swansea xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Southampton 1.9 – 0.7 Swansea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
65%
1.55
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.44
–
Form
Southampton – last 6
DDWLWL
5 Sep
@ Lincoln
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Birmingham
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Millwall
5–1
W
25 Aug
vs West Ham
1–4
L
22 Aug
vs Stoke City
3–1
W
16 Aug
@ Watford
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Swansea – last 6
DWWDWL
5 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–0
D
1 Sep
vs Watford
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Derby
3–0
W
22 Aug
vs Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Stoke City
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Swansea.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Swansea?
Our pick is Southampton or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Southampton vs Swansea?
On our numbers Southampton have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Swansea 14%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Swansea?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Swansea?
Our predicted score is Southampton 1–0 Swansea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Swansea?
Southampton vs Swansea (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
