Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMiddlesbrough to win ✗41% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Burnley vs Middlesbrough preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Burnley take on Middlesbrough on Wednesday 2 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Turf Moor. Burnley are 22nd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Middlesbrough sit 2nd on 29 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Burnley's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Norwich 1–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Middlesbrough's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat West Brom 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Middlesbrough arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.6 for Burnley and 1.7 for Middlesbrough. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley36%fair 2.77 · @2.75
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.50
Middlesbrough41%fair 2.43 · @2.38
3.31Expected goals
1.60Burnley xG
1.72Middlesbrough xG
62%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Burnley 1.6 – 1.7 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Middlesbrough to win✗
41%
2.43
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.68
–
Form
Burnley – last 6
LDLDDL
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Bradford
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ West Brom
1–3
L
16 Aug
vs West Ham
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Notts County
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Torino
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Middlesbrough – last 6
WWLWWD
29 Aug
vs West Brom
3–1
W
25 Aug
@ Doncaster
3–1
W
22 Aug
@ Blackburn
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Lincoln
2–1
W
7 Aug
vs Wrexham
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs Espanyol
3–3
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Middlesbrough.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
On our numbers Burnley have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 41%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Burnley vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
