Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Aragua FC to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAragua FC to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceAragua FC or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.83
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Aragua FC vs Caracas FC preview and prediction
The match
Caracas FC travel to face Aragua FC in the Copa Venezuela on Wednesday 14 October (20:30 WAT). Aragua FC are 2nd with 10 points from 6 games, while Caracas FC sit 1st on 13 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Aragua FC's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 4–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Caracas FC's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Zamora FC 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Aragua FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 June 2026, finished Caracas FC 1–1 Aragua FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.3 for Aragua FC and 1.2 for Caracas FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aragua FC 58%, draw 26%, Caracas FC 17%.
Safer route: Aragua FC or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Aragua FC to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aragua FC or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aragua FC 2–1 Caracas FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aragua FC58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.10
Caracas FC17%fair 6.06 · @3.50
3.50Expected goals
2.27Aragua FC xG
1.23Caracas FC xG
58%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Aragua FC 2.3 – 1.2 Caracas FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Aragua FC vs Caracas FC?
Our pick is Aragua FC or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aragua FC vs Caracas FC?
On our numbers Aragua FC have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Caracas FC 17%.
How many goals will there be in Aragua FC vs Caracas FC?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aragua FC vs Caracas FC?
Our predicted score is Aragua FC 2–1 Caracas FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Aragua FC vs Caracas FC?
Aragua FC vs Caracas FC (Copa Venezuela) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Club Atletico Barinas3
Real Frontera0
Atletico Avila FC1
Anzoátegui FC2
Atletico el Vigia FC1
Zamora FC3
Monagas SC2
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz1
Trujillanos FC0
Rayo Zuliano0