Double chanceUnion St. Gilloise or draw ✓90% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.11
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven preview and prediction
The match
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stade Joseph Marien. Union St. Gilloise are 1st with 29 points from 11 games (top of the table), while OH Leuven sit 10th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Union St. Gilloise's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Antwerp 2–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
OH Leuven's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat RAAL La Louvière 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.8 for OH Leuven. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 47% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union St. Gilloise 69%, draw 20%, OH Leuven 10%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Union St. Gilloise to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Union St. Gilloise 2–0 OH Leuven. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union St. Gilloise69%fair 1.44 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @5.80
OH Leuven10%fair 9.65 · @10.00
3.00Expected goals
2.23Union St. Gilloise xG
0.77OH Leuven xG
47%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Union St. Gilloise 2.2 – 0.8 OH Leuven expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union St. Gilloise to win✗
69%
1.44
1.25
Double chance
Union St. Gilloise or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Union St. Gilloise ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✗
47%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.11
–
Form
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
WWWWWW
20 Sep
@ Antwerp
2–0
W
17 Sep
@ Plzen
3–0
W
12 Sep
vs Lommel United
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
2 Sep
@ St. Truiden
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Anderlecht
3–0
W
3.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
OH Leuven – last 6
WDLLLL
19 Sep
vs RAAL La Louvière
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Cercle Brugge
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ SK Beveren
0–3
L
3 Sep
@ Gent
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Standard Liege
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Club Brugge KV
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven.
What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our pick is Union St. Gilloise to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
On our numbers Union St. Gilloise have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and OH Leuven 10%.
How many goals will there be in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our predicted score is Union St. Gilloise 2–0 OH Leuven, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Joseph Marien.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
