Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
2
Value bet: St. Truiden to win @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSt. Truiden to win ✗53% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden preview and prediction
The match
KV Mechelen host St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 18:15 (WAT) at Achter de Kazerne. KV Mechelen are 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while St. Truiden sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
KV Mechelen's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Karpaty 2–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
St. Truiden's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to KVC Westerlo 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
St. Truiden arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished St. Truiden 3–0 KV Mechelen.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.2 for KV Mechelen and 1.8 for St. Truiden. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: KV Mechelen 26%, draw 21%, St. Truiden 53%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.55.
Value angle: St. Truiden to win at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: KV Mechelen 1–1 St. Truiden. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
KV Mechelen26%fair 3.79 · @3.00
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.40
St. Truiden53%fair 1.89 · @2.10
3.07Expected goals
1.22KV Mechelen xG
1.85St. Truiden xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: KV Mechelen 1.2 – 1.8 St. Truiden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
On our numbers KV Mechelen have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 21% and St. Truiden 53%.
How many goals will there be in KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
Our predicted score is KV Mechelen 1–1 St. Truiden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Achter de Kazerne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
