Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa prediction & analysis
60%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win ✗39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.86
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa preview and prediction
The match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki host Polonia Warszawa in the I Liga on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th with 21 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Polonia Warszawa sit 1st on 25 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Chrobry Głogów 4–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Polonia Warszawa's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Arka Gdynia 2–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Polonia Warszawa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.4 for Polonia Warszawa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Polonia Warszawa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki39%fair 2.59 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.25
Polonia Warszawa38%fair 2.65 · @2.10
2.85Expected goals
1.44Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki xG
1.41Polonia Warszawa xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.4 – 1.4 Polonia Warszawa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win✗
39%
2.59
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / FT Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.86
–
Form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki – last 6
WLWLWL
10 Oct
@ Chrobry Głogów
4–0
W
2 Oct
@ Radomiak Radom
2–7
L
19 Sep
vs ŁKS Łódź
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Unia Skierniewice
2–3
L
4 Sep
vs Warta Poznań
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Podhale Nowy Targ
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Polonia Warszawa – last 6
WWWDLW
10 Oct
@ Arka Gdynia
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Jagiellonia
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Chrobry Głogów
2–0
W
11 Sep
vs Polonia Bytom
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Stal Rzeszów
1–2
L
2 Sep
@ Górnik Polkowice
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa.
What is the prediction for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
On our numbers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Polonia Warszawa 38%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
Our predicted score is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Polonia Warszawa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa (I Liga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
