Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
1
Value bet: Chelsea to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChelsea to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.56
Chelsea vs Brighton preview and prediction
The match
Chelsea host Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are 5th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Brighton sit 2nd on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Chelsea's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Luton 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Brighton's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Tromso 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Brighton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 April 2026, finished Brighton 3–0 Chelsea.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 2.8 for Chelsea and 1.7 for Brighton. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chelsea 59%, draw 19%, Brighton 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Chelsea to win at 1.83 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chelsea 2–1 Brighton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chelsea59%fair 1.69 · @1.83
Draw19%fair 5.35 · @3.80
Brighton22%fair 4.51 · @3.90
4.50Expected goals
2.77Chelsea xG
1.73Brighton xG
65%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
1–15%
4–15%
From our goals model: Chelsea 2.8 – 1.7 Brighton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Chelsea vs Brighton?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Brighton 22%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Brighton?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Brighton?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 2–1 Brighton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs Brighton?
Chelsea vs Brighton (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
