Championship · Scotland · Somerset ParkAyr Utd vs Dunfermline prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 0.8 – 1.0 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Dunfermline shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Ayr Utd.
Ayr Utd have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Dunfermline have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 1.8 goals (0.8 for Ayr Utd, 1.0 for Dunfermline). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (17%), 0–0 (16%), 1–1 (13%).
In their last 2 meetings, Ayr Utd have won 0, Dunfermline have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 50% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is close to our fair price of 1.98.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dunfermline to win ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✓ | 24% | 4.14 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 17% | 6.05 | – |
Form
Ayr Utd – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Livingston | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Stenhousemuir | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | @ Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Inverness CT | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Partick | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Morton | 1–1 | D |
Dunfermline – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Aberdeen | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Morton | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Arbroath | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs Raith Rovers | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Livingston | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 8 Aug 2026 | Dunfermline v Ayr Utd | 1–1 |
| 7 Apr 2026 | Ayr Utd v Dunfermline | 0–3 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dunfermline 44%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline?
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.