Championship · Scotland · Gayfield ParkArbroath vs Morton prediction & analysis
Arbroath or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Arbroath to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Arbroath 1.6 – 0.6 Morton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Arbroath are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 13% for Morton.
Arbroath have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 per game. Morton have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded. Arbroath come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.6 for Arbroath, 0.6 for Morton). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 2 meetings, Arbroath have won 1, Morton have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Arbroath or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Arbroath to win at 1.80 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arbroath to win ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Arbroath or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.50 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Arbroath / FT Arbroath ✗ | 38% | 2.61 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.94 | – |
Form
Arbroath – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Partick | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Queen's Park | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Stenhousemuir | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Raith Rovers | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Dunfermline | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Livingston | 1–0 | W |
Morton – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Raith Rovers | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | @ Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Dunfermline | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Livingston | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Queen's Park | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 22 Aug 2026 | Morton v Arbroath | 1–2 |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Morton v Arbroath | 2–1 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arbroath vs Morton?
Our pick is Arbroath or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arbroath vs Morton?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Morton 13%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Morton?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Arbroath vs Morton?
Arbroath vs Morton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.