Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Morton to win @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultStenhousemuir to win ✓41% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.27
Stenhousemuir vs Morton preview and prediction
The match
Stenhousemuir host Morton in the Championship on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Ochilview Park. Stenhousemuir are 4th with 23 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Morton sit 9th on 13 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Stenhousemuir's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Raith Rovers 1–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Morton's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Partick 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
Stenhousemuir arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Stenhousemuir and 1.0 for Morton. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Value angle: Morton to win at 3.50 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Stenhousemuir 1–0 Morton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stenhousemuir41%fair 2.45 · @1.98
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.35
Morton36%fair 2.76 · @3.50
2.05Expected goals
1.07Stenhousemuir xG
0.98Morton xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.1 – 1.0 Morton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stenhousemuir to win✓
41%
2.45
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.27
–
Form
Stenhousemuir – last 6
DDDWWW
1 Aug
@ Raith Rovers
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Livingston
0–0
D
21 Jul
@ Partick
2–2
D
18 Jul
@ Brechin
2–1
W
11 Jul
vs Forfar Athletic
2–0
W
13 May
@ Alloa Athletic
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Morton – last 6
LLLLLD
1 Aug
vs Partick
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Inverness CT
0–1
L
18 Jul
@ ST Johnstone
0–3
L
14 Jul
@ East Fife
0–2
L
11 Jul
vs Linlithgow Rose
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs Stranraer
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stenhousemuir and Morton.
What is the prediction for Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
On our numbers Stenhousemuir have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Morton 36%.
How many goals will there be in Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
Our predicted score is Stenhousemuir 1–0 Morton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Stenhousemuir vs Morton?
Stenhousemuir vs Morton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Ochilview Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
