Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Ayr Utd to win @ 2.45 – our chance 48% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAyr Utd to win ✓48% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.31
Ayr Utd vs Arbroath preview and prediction
The match
Arbroath travel to Somerset Park in the Championship on Saturday 1 August (15:00 WAT) to face Ayr Utd. Ayr Utd are 7th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Arbroath sit 8th on 14 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ayr Utd's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Alloa Athletic 4–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arbroath's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Stirling Albion 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Ayr Utd arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 March 2026, finished Arbroath 1–1 Ayr Utd.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Ayr Utd and 0.9 for Arbroath. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ayr Utd 48%, draw 22%, Arbroath 29%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Ayr Utd to win at 2.45 – 48% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Ayr Utd 1–1 Arbroath. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ayr Utd48%fair 2.07 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Arbroath29%fair 3.42 · @2.78
2.28Expected goals
1.33Ayr Utd xG
0.94Arbroath xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.3 – 0.9 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arbroath 29%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 1–1 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs Arbroath?
Ayr Utd vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
