Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Aberdeen to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAberdeen to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceAberdeen or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.70
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren preview and prediction
The match
The Premiership sees Aberdeen take on ST Mirren on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Pittodrie Stadium. Aberdeen are 11th with 11 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while ST Mirren sit 8th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Aberdeen's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to ST Johnstone 0–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
ST Mirren's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Heart Of Midlothian 0–5 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Aberdeen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 May 2026, finished Aberdeen 0–2 ST Mirren.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Aberdeen and 0.8 for ST Mirren. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aberdeen 58%, draw 24%, ST Mirren 18%.
Safer route: Aberdeen or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Aberdeen to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aberdeen or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aberdeen 1–0 ST Mirren. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aberdeen58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.40
ST Mirren18%fair 5.54 · @4.00
2.38Expected goals
1.61Aberdeen xG
0.77ST Mirren xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Aberdeen 1.6 – 0.8 ST Mirren expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Aberdeen or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
On our numbers Aberdeen have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and ST Mirren 18%.
How many goals will there be in Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
Our predicted score is Aberdeen 1–0 ST Mirren, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren (Premiership) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pittodrie Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
