Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Motherwell to win @ 1.81 – our chance 66% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMotherwell to win ✗66% · @1.81
Double chanceMotherwell or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.51
Motherwell vs Falkirk preview and prediction
The match
Motherwell host Falkirk in the Premiership on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Fir Park. Motherwell are 9th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Falkirk sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Motherwell's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with HJK Helsinki 1–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Falkirk's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to ST Mirren 0–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Motherwell and 0.7 for Falkirk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Motherwell to win at 1.81 – 66% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Motherwell or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Motherwell 1–0 Falkirk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Motherwell66%fair 1.51 · @1.81
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.75
Falkirk12%fair 8.34 · @4.00
2.70Expected goals
1.97Motherwell xG
0.72Falkirk xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Motherwell 2.0 – 0.7 Falkirk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Motherwell to win✗
66%
1.51
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Motherwell or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.42
Half-time result
Motherwell ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Motherwell / FT Motherwell✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.51
–
Form
Motherwell – last 6
DWWWLL
6 Aug
@ HJK Helsinki
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Hibernian
2–1
W
30 Jul
@ HB Torshavn
3–0
W
23 Jul
vs HB Torshavn
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs Genk
3–4
L
5 Jul
@ Aarhus
0–4
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Falkirk – last 6
LWDWLW
1 Aug
vs ST Mirren
0–2
L
25 Jul
vs Stranraer
3–0
W
21 Jul
@ Alloa Athletic
1–1
D
18 Jul
vs Genk
1–0
W
14 Jul
vs Ayr Utd
0–1
L
11 Jul
@ Edinburgh City
5–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Motherwell and Falkirk.
Our pick is Motherwell or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Motherwell vs Falkirk?
On our numbers Motherwell have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Falkirk 12%.
How many goals will there be in Motherwell vs Falkirk?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs Falkirk?
Our predicted score is Motherwell 1–0 Falkirk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Motherwell vs Falkirk?
Motherwell vs Falkirk (Premiership) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Fir Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
