Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Kashima to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKashima to win ✓66% · @1.70
Double chanceKashima or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.55
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka preview and prediction
The match
Kashima host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League on Saturday 31 October, with kick-off at 07:00 (WAT) at Mercari Stadium. Kashima are 1st with 45 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Cerezo Osaka sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Kashima's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Pohang Steelers 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerezo Osaka's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Mito Hollyhock 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Kashima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Kashima and 0.9 for Cerezo Osaka. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Kashima to win at 1.70 – 66% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Kashima or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Kashima 2–0 Cerezo Osaka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kashima66%fair 1.51 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.80
Cerezo Osaka13%fair 7.91 · @4.20
3.21Expected goals
2.28Kashima xG
0.93Cerezo Osaka xG
58%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Kashima 2.3 – 0.9 Cerezo Osaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kashima to win✓
66%
1.51
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Kashima or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Kashima ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kashima / FT Kashima✓
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.55
–
Form
Kashima – last 6
WLDWWW
28 Oct
vs Pohang Steelers
3–0
W
24 Oct
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–3
L
21 Oct
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs V-varen Nagasaki
2–0
W
13 Oct
@ Công An Nhân Dân
1–0
W
9 Oct
vs Gamba Osaka
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka – last 6
WDDLWD
28 Oct
@ Mito Hollyhock
3–1
W
25 Oct
vs JEF United Chiba
2–2
D
21 Oct
@ Nagoya Grampus
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Kawasaki Frontale
2–4
L
14 Oct
@ Gainare Tottori
3–2
W
10 Oct
vs Yokohama F. Marinos
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kashima and Cerezo Osaka.
What is the prediction for Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our pick is Kashima or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
On our numbers Kashima have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Cerezo Osaka 13%.
How many goals will there be in Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our predicted score is Kashima 2–0 Cerezo Osaka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercari Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kyoto Sanga2
Shimizu S-pulse0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima3
Fagiano Okayama0
Vissel Kobe3
Nagoya Grampus1