Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga preview and prediction
The match
Kitakyushu host Matsumoto Yamaga in the J3 League on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 10:00 (WAT) at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu. Kitakyushu are 13th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Matsumoto Yamaga sit 15th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Kitakyushu's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Tochigi SC 2–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Ehime FC 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Kitakyushu and 1.4 for Matsumoto Yamaga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Kitakyushu 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kitakyushu35%fair 2.88 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Matsumoto Yamaga41%fair 2.43 · @2.45
2.60Expected goals
1.23Kitakyushu xG
1.37Matsumoto Yamaga xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Kitakyushu 1.2 – 1.4 Matsumoto Yamaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Matsumoto Yamaga to win✗
41%
2.43
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Matsumoto Yamaga / FT Matsumoto Yamaga✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.67
–
Form
Kitakyushu – last 6
DDDLWD
22 Aug
@ Tochigi SC
2–2
D
19 Aug
vs Okinawa SV
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Kamatamare Sanuki
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Yokohama FC
2–3
L
11 Jul
@ Avispa Fukuoka
2–1
W
7 Jun
@ Tochigi SC
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
DLDWLD
22 Aug
vs Ehime FC
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Biwako Shiga
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ Kochi United
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Ventforet Kofu
3–0
W
6 Jun
vs Nara Club
0–2
L
31 May
@ Montedio Yamagata
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kitakyushu and Matsumoto Yamaga.
What is the prediction for Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
On our numbers Kitakyushu have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Matsumoto Yamaga 41%.
How many goals will there be in Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Our predicted score is Kitakyushu 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time) at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
