Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.55 – our chance 54% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +38%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win ✓80% · @1.03
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✓93% · fair 1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.55
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 12.55
Qarabag vs Vestri preview and prediction
The match
Qarabag host Vestri in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 9 July, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Tofiq Bəhramov.
Form guide
Qarabag's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Ferencvarosi TC 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Vestri's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Grindavik 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Vestri arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 3.4 for Qarabag and 1.1 for Vestri. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 83% and both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qarabag 80%, draw 13%, Vestri 7%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.55.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.55 – 54% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 3.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Qarabag 3–1 Vestri. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qarabag80%fair 1.25 · @1.03
Draw13%fair 7.44 · @12.00
Vestri7%fair 14.56 · @27.00
4.54Expected goals
3.44Qarabag xG
1.10Vestri xG
54%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
3–07%
2–17%
4–17%
2–06%
4–06%
From our goals model: Qarabag 3.4 – 1.1 Vestri expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
80%
1.25
1.03
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
93%
1.07
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.55 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.05
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.36
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✓
59%
1.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.55
–
Form
Qarabag – last 6
LLWWLL
1 Jul
@ Ferencvarosi TC
0–1
L
1 Jul
vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2–6
L
22 May
@ Sumqayıt
4–3
W
4 May
vs Turan
2–1
W
30 Apr
@ Neftchi Baku
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vestri – last 6
DDWWLW
4 Jul
@ Grindavik
0–0
D
27 Jun
@ Throttur Reykjavik
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Afturelding
2–0
W
17 Jun
vs Ægir
3–2
W
13 Jun
@ Leiknir R.
0–1
L
6 Jun
vs Völsungur
5–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Vestri.
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Qarabag vs Vestri?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Vestri 7%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Vestri?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Vestri?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 3–1 Vestri, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Vestri?
Qarabag vs Vestri (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 9 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Tofiq Bəhramov.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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