Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCSKA Sofia to win ✓70% · @1.26
Double chanceCSKA Sofia or draw ✓90% · fair 1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.63
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
Derry City travel to Vasil Levski National Sports Academy in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 9 July (19:00 WAT) to face CSKA Sofia.
Form guide
CSKA Sofia's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Marek 3–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Derry City's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Waterford 2–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for CSKA Sofia and 0.7 for Derry City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: CSKA Sofia 70%, draw 20%, Derry City 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: CSKA Sofia 2–0 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CSKA Sofia70%fair 1.42 · @1.26
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @5.00
Derry City10%fair 10.34 · @10.00
2.95Expected goals
2.22CSKA Sofia xG
0.73Derry City xG
53%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: CSKA Sofia 2.2 – 0.7 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CSKA Sofia to win✓
70%
1.42
1.26
Double chance
CSKA Sofia or draw✓
90%
1.11
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
CSKA Sofia ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CSKA Sofia / FT CSKA Sofia✓
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.63
–
Form
CSKA Sofia – last 6
WLLDWD
3 Jul
vs Marek
3–0
W
24 Jun
vs Polessya
0–4
L
25 May
@ Ludogorets
0–1
L
13 May
vs CSKA 1948
1–1
D
8 May
@ CSKA 1948
1–0
W
29 Apr
vs Ludogorets
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derry City – last 6
LWDLWL
3 Jul
vs Waterford
2–4
L
26 Jun
vs Drogheda United
2–0
W
22 Jun
@ Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
19 Jun
@ Galway United
1–2
L
12 Jun
vs Bohemians
4–1
W
29 May
@ Dundalk
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CSKA Sofia and Derry City.
What is the prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
On our numbers CSKA Sofia have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Derry City 10%.
How many goals will there be in CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is CSKA Sofia 2–0 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 9 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Vasil Levski National Sports Academy.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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