Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.77 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Santa Coloma to win ✓68% · @1.60
Double chanceFC Santa Coloma or draw ✓87% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.19
FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont preview and prediction
The match
Penybont travel to Estadi Nacional in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 16 July (18:00 WAT) to face FC Santa Coloma.
Form guide
FC Santa Coloma's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Penybont 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penybont's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to FC Santa Coloma 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
FC Santa Coloma arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 July 2026, finished Penybont 0–1 FC Santa Coloma.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for FC Santa Coloma and 0.4 for Penybont. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Santa Coloma 68%, draw 19%, Penybont 13%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Santa Coloma 1–0 Penybont. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Santa Coloma68%fair 1.47 · @1.60
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.60
Penybont13%fair 7.70 · @5.10
1.79Expected goals
1.43FC Santa Coloma xG
0.36Penybont xG
46%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
2–017%
0–017%
1–19%
3–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: FC Santa Coloma 1.4 – 0.4 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont?
On our numbers FC Santa Coloma have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Penybont 13%.
How many goals will there be in FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is FC Santa Coloma 1–0 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont?
FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadi Nacional.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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