Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Metalac GM to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMetalac GM to win ✓64% · @1.85
Double chanceMetalac GM or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.82
Metalac GM vs Grafičar preview and prediction
The match
Grafičar travel to Stadion FK Metalac in the Prva Liga on Monday 21 September (17:00 WAT) to face Metalac GM. Metalac GM are 12th with 19 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Grafičar sit 14th on 17 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Metalac GM's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Borac Cacak 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Grafičar's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat OFK Bor 1919 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Metalac GM arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Metalac GM and 0.8 for Grafičar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 44%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Metalac GM to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Metalac GM or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Metalac GM 1–0 Grafičar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Metalac GM64%fair 1.56 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.25
Grafičar14%fair 7.07 · @3.70
2.72Expected goals
1.93Metalac GM xG
0.78Grafičar xG
44%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Metalac GM 1.9 – 0.8 Grafičar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metalac GM to win✓
64%
1.56
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Metalac GM or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Metalac GM ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metalac GM / FT Metalac GM✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.82
–
Form
Metalac GM – last 6
WWDLLD
16 Sep
@ Borac Cacak
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs Dubočica
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Naftagas
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Loznica
2–4
L
23 Aug
@ FK Vozdovac
0–1
L
19 Aug
vs Semendrija 1924
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Grafičar – last 6
WLLLLD
17 Sep
vs OFK Bor 1919
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ OFK Vršac
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Borac Cacak
1–2
L
31 Aug
vs Dubočica
1–4
L
24 Aug
@ Naftagas
1–2
L
19 Aug
vs Loznica
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metalac GM and Grafičar.
What is the prediction for Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
Our pick is Metalac GM or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
On our numbers Metalac GM have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Grafičar 14%.
How many goals will there be in Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
Our predicted score is Metalac GM 1–0 Grafičar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
Metalac GM vs Grafičar (Prva Liga) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion FK Metalac.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
