Value bet: V-varen Nagasaki to win @ 3.25 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFagiano Okayama to win ✓38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees Fagiano Okayama take on V-varen Nagasaki on Saturday 15 August, kicking off at 10:55 (WAT) at City Light Stadium. Fagiano Okayama are 6th with 26 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while V-varen Nagasaki sit 9th on 21 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Fagiano Okayama's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Cerezo Osaka 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Kyoto Sanga 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
V-varen Nagasaki arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 May 2026, finished V-varen Nagasaki 2–1 Fagiano Okayama. Across their last 2 meetings Fagiano Okayama have won 0, V-varen Nagasaki 2, with 0 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Fagiano Okayama and 1.4 for V-varen Nagasaki. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: V-varen Nagasaki to win at 3.25 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Fagiano Okayama 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fagiano Okayama38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
V-varen Nagasaki38%fair 2.65 · @3.25
2.71Expected goals
1.36Fagiano Okayama xG
1.35V-varen Nagasaki xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Fagiano Okayama 1.4 – 1.4 V-varen Nagasaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?
On our numbers Fagiano Okayama have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and V-varen Nagasaki 38%.
How many goals will there be in Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our predicted score is Fagiano Okayama 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 10:55 (West Africa Time) at City Light Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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