Ligue 1 · France · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens
Marseille
Lens vs Marseille prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Marseille to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lens 1.6 – 1.6 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Lens and Marseille on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Lens have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.8 per game. Marseille have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. Marseille come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.6 for Lens, 1.6 for Marseille). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.23. For a bigger price, Marseille to win at 3.00 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lens to win ✗ | 40% | 2.51 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lens / FT Lens ✗ | 24% | 4.25 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 11.83 | – |
Form
Lens – last 6
| 4 Nov | vs Como | 1–9 | L |
| 30 Oct | @ Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Paris FC | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Club Brugge KV | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Estac Troyes | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Sporting CP | 0–2 | L |
Marseille – last 6
| 5 Nov | @ Bayer Leverkusen | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Nov | vs Toulouse | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Le Havre | 4–3 | W |
| 22 Oct | @ Sturm Graz | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Angers | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Olympiakos Piraeus | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Marseille.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League hub →Rennes1
Lille2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
79%@1.22
✓
FT
Angers0
Nice2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
78%@1.22
✓
FT
Stade Brestois 292
Lyon0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
76%@1.25
✓
FT
Le Havre0
Lorient2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
76%@1.28
✓
FT
Le Mans1
Monaco1
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
77%@1.25
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lens vs Marseille?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
On our numbers Lens have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Marseille?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Lens vs Marseille?
Lens vs Marseille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.