Value bet: Lille to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonaco to win ✗41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.81
Monaco vs Lille preview and prediction
The match
Lille travel to Stade Louis II in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October (15:00 WAT) to face Monaco. Monaco are 7th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Lille sit 2nd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Monaco's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat SC Freiburg 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Lille's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Galatasaray 2–4 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Monaco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Monaco and 1.0 for Lille. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monaco 41%, draw 24%, Lille 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Lille to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Monaco 1–1 Lille. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monaco41%fair 2.42 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.30
Lille35%fair 2.86 · @3.50
2.21Expected goals
1.17Monaco xG
1.04Lille xG
57%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Monaco 1.2 – 1.0 Lille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
41%
2.42
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.81
–
Form
Monaco – last 6
WLWDWD
22 Oct
vs SC Freiburg
3–0
W
18 Oct
@ Lorient
0–1
L
15 Oct
@ CSKA Sofia
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lille – last 6
LDLWWL
21 Oct
vs Galatasaray
2–4
L
17 Oct
vs Stade Brestois 29
1–1
D
13 Oct
@ Arsenal
0–3
L
10 Oct
vs Le Havre
1–0
W
2 Oct
vs Zulte Waregem
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Nice
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and Lille.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
On our numbers Monaco have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lille 35%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Lille?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Lille?
Our predicted score is Monaco 1–1 Lille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Monaco vs Lille?
Monaco vs Lille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
