Le Havre travel to Orange Vélodrome in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October (17:15 WAT) to face Marseille. Marseille are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Le Havre sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Sturm Graz 0–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Le Havre's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Auxerre 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Marseille arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Marseille and 0.8 for Le Havre. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marseille 69%, draw 18%, Le Havre 13%.
Safer route: Marseille or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marseille to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Marseille 2–0 Le Havre. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille69%fair 1.45 · @1.55
Draw18%fair 5.58 · @4.40
Le Havre13%fair 7.75 · @4.80
2.86Expected goals
2.10Marseille xG
0.76Le Havre xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.1 – 0.8 Le Havre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
69%
1.45
1.55 ▲
Double chance
Marseille or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.90
–
Form
Marseille – last 6
LWLWLL
22 Oct
@ Sturm Graz
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
17 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Le Havre – last 6
LLLDLD
18 Oct
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
10 Oct
@ Lille
0–1
L
19 Sep
@ Toulouse
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Angers
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Stade Brestois 29
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Lyon
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Le Havre.
Our pick is Marseille to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
On our numbers Marseille have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Le Havre 13%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Le Havre?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–0 Le Havre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille vs Le Havre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
