Value bet: Lorient to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonaco to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.37
Lorient vs Monaco preview and prediction
The match
Monaco travel to Stade du Moustoir in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October (16:15 WAT) to face Lorient. Lorient are 10th with 15 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Monaco sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lorient's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Paris FC 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monaco's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat CSKA Sofia 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Monaco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Lorient and 1.3 for Monaco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lorient 31%, draw 22%, Monaco 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Lorient to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Lorient 1–1 Monaco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorient31%fair 3.22 · @3.50
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30
Monaco47%fair 2.12 · @2.00
2.25Expected goals
0.96Lorient xG
1.29Monaco xG
58%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.0 – 1.3 Monaco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
47%
2.12
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.37
–
Form
Lorient – last 6
WLDWLD
10 Oct
vs Paris FC
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Le Mans
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Lens
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Estac Troyes
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Nice
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monaco – last 6
WDWDWW
15 Oct
@ CSKA Sofia
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Marseille
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Monaco.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
On our numbers Lorient have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monaco 47%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Monaco?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Monaco?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Monaco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Monaco?
Lorient vs Monaco (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
