Lorient host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade du Moustoir. Lorient are 10th with 15 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Toulouse sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lorient's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Lens 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Toulouse's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Lille 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Lorient and 0.9 for Toulouse. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lorient 38%, draw 24%, Toulouse 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Lorient 1–1 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorient38%fair 2.65 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.10
Toulouse38%fair 2.65 · @2.75
1.83Expected goals
0.92Lorient xG
0.91Toulouse xG
52%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–015%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Lorient 0.9 – 0.9 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
38%
2.65
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.81
–
Form
Lorient – last 6
WLDLLW
5 Sep
@ Lens
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Estac Troyes
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Nice
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ Angers
1–2
L
4 Aug
vs UNFP
5–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
LDLLWD
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
31 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodez
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Toulouse.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lorient vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Lorient have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toulouse 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Toulouse?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Toulouse?
Lorient vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
