Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Metz to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMetz to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceMetz or draw ✓83% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.69
Metz vs Rodez preview and prediction
The match
Rodez travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien in the Ligue 2 on Saturday 5 September (13:00 WAT) to face Metz. Metz are 7th with 17 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Rodez sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Metz's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Annecy 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Rodez's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with PAU 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Metz and 1.0 for Rodez. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Metz 62%, draw 21%, Rodez 17%.
Safer route: Metz or draw (83%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Metz to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Metz or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Metz 2–0 Rodez. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Metz62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.40
Rodez17%fair 5.97 · @3.50
3.00Expected goals
2.04Metz xG
0.96Rodez xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Metz 2.0 – 1.0 Rodez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metz to win✓
62%
1.62
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Metz or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Metz ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metz / FT Metz✓
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.69
–
Form
Metz – last 6
DDDWLW
29 Aug
@ Annecy
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Laval
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Grenoble
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Guingamp
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1–3
L
25 Jul
vs Fortuna Sittard
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rodez – last 6
DWLWLD
28 Aug
vs PAU
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Nantes
5–2
W
14 Aug
@ Annecy
0–2
L
8 Aug
vs Laval
3–1
W
1 Aug
@ Montpellier
2–4
L
25 Jul
@ Toulouse
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Rodez.
Our pick is Metz or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Metz vs Rodez?
On our numbers Metz have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rodez 17%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Rodez?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Rodez?
Our predicted score is Metz 2–0 Rodez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Rodez?
Metz vs Rodez (Ligue 2) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
