Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Montpellier to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontpellier to win ✗65% · @1.90
Double chanceMontpellier or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.48
Montpellier vs Dijon preview and prediction
The match
Dijon travel to Stade de la Mosson in the Ligue 2 on Saturday 8 August (19:45 WAT) to face Montpellier. Montpellier are 3rd with 24 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Dijon sit 6th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Montpellier's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Rodez 4–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Dijon's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Nancy 2–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Montpellier and 0.6 for Dijon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Montpellier to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Montpellier or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Montpellier 1–0 Dijon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montpellier65%fair 1.55 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.35
Dijon12%fair 8.49 · @4.10
2.47Expected goals
1.82Montpellier xG
0.65Dijon xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.8 – 0.6 Dijon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✗
65%
1.55
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Montpellier or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Montpellier ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✗
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.48
–
Form
Montpellier – last 6
WWLWWW
1 Aug
vs Rodez
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Clermont Foot
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Cannes
3–4
L
17 Jul
vs Le Puy Foot
5–2
W
11 Jul
vs Aubagne
3–2
W
24 Apr
@ Amiens
2–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Dijon – last 6
DWWWWD
1 Aug
@ Nancy
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Sochaux
3–0
W
22 Jul
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–1
W
18 Jul
vs Progres Niederkorn
4–1
W
15 Jul
vs UNFP
5–2
W
11 Jul
@ Le Puy Foot
1–1
D
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montpellier and Dijon.
Our pick is Montpellier or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Montpellier vs Dijon?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dijon 12%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs Dijon?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Dijon?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–0 Dijon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs Dijon?
Montpellier vs Dijon (Ligue 2) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
