Value bet: Heerenveen to win @ 2.90 – our chance 41% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultHeerenveen to win41% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score69% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals72% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.61
Groningen vs Heerenveen preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees Groningen take on Heerenveen on Saturday 21 November, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Euroborg. Groningen are 9th with 15 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Heerenveen sit 6th on 21 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Groningen's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to AZ Alkmaar 3–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Heerenveen's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Feyenoord 5–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Heerenveen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.8 for Groningen and 2.2 for Heerenveen. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Heerenveen to win at 2.90 – 41% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Over 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Groningen 1–2 Heerenveen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Groningen37%fair 2.72 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.80
Heerenveen41%fair 2.44 · @2.90
4.01Expected goals
1.82Groningen xG
2.19Heerenveen xG
69%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Groningen 1.8 – 2.2 Heerenveen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Groningen
Heerenveen
Attack vs Eredivisie average
+25%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
+19%
-22%
Our expected goals here
1.84
2.54
Our own ratings from every Eredivisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heerenveen to win
41%
2.44
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
88%
1.13
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
52%
1.94
2.00
Half-time result
Heerenveen ahead at half-time
38%
2.63
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heerenveen / FT Heerenveen
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.61
–
Form
Groningen – last 6
LLLDLW
8 Nov
@ AZ Alkmaar
3–4
L
1 Nov
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–3
L
29 Oct
vs Emmen
0–2
L
25 Oct
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
18 Oct
vs Ajax
2–5
L
11 Oct
@ Excelsior
5–1
W
2.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Heerenveen – last 6
WWWWWL
8 Nov
vs Feyenoord
5–3
W
31 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–0
W
28 Oct
@ Excelsior Maassluis
2–0
W
24 Oct
@ ADO Den Haag
3–2
W
16 Oct
vs Excelsior
4–0
W
9 Oct
@ PSV Eindhoven
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Groningen and Heerenveen.
What is the prediction for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Groningen vs Heerenveen?
On our numbers Groningen have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Heerenveen 41%.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs Heerenveen?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our predicted score is Groningen 1–2 Heerenveen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Groningen vs Heerenveen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Euroborg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
