Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultHeerenveen to win ✗64% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Willem II vs Heerenveen preview and prediction
The match
Willem II host Heerenveen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Koning Willem II Stadion. Willem II are 18th with 3 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Heerenveen sit 6th on 21 points (in the top half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Willem II's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to NEC Nijmegen 1–4 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Heerenveen's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to PEC Zwolle 0–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Heerenveen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.2 for Willem II and 2.2 for Heerenveen. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Willem II 24%, draw 12%, Heerenveen 64%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Heerenveen to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Willem II 1–2 Heerenveen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Willem II24%fair 4.12 · @3.70
Draw12%fair 8.47 · @4.00
Heerenveen64%fair 1.56 · @1.75
3.40Expected goals
1.21Willem II xG
2.19Heerenveen xG
65%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–17%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Willem II 1.2 – 2.2 Heerenveen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heerenveen to win✗
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
88%
1.13
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Heerenveen ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heerenveen / FT Heerenveen✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.32
–
Form
Willem II – last 6
LLWWDL
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs KV Mechelen
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs FC Eindhoven
2–2
D
4 Jul
vs Quick Boys
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Heerenveen – last 6
LDWWDW
22 Aug
vs PEC Zwolle
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Ajax
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs Twente
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs Volos NFC
3–2
W
25 Jul
vs OH Leuven
4–4
D
17 Jul
@ Club Brugge KV
3–2
W
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Willem II and Heerenveen.
What is the prediction for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our pick is Heerenveen to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Willem II vs Heerenveen?
On our numbers Willem II have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Heerenveen 64%.
How many goals will there be in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our predicted score is Willem II 1–2 Heerenveen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Willem II vs Heerenveen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
