Eredivisie · Netherlands · Stadion WoudesteinExcelsior vs PSV Eindhoven prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Excelsior 1.3 – 2.5 PSV Eindhoven expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
PSV Eindhoven travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 21% for Excelsior.
Excelsior have taken 18 points from their last 6 matches (6W 0D 0L), scoring 3.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. PSV Eindhoven have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.7 scored and 2.3 conceded. Excelsior come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.8 goals (1.3 for Excelsior, 2.5 for PSV Eindhoven). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 1–3 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.40.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | PSV Eindhoven to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.57 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.09 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.90 |
| Half-time result | PSV Eindhoven ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT PSV Eindhoven / FT PSV Eindhoven ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✓ | 9% | 11.01 | – |
Form
Excelsior – last 6
| 7 Aug | @ Cambuur | 4–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ De Graafschap | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Jul | @ Heracles | 5–3 | W |
| 18 Jul | @ NAC Breda | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Jul | @ Dordrecht | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Jul | vs Cambuur | 3–2 | W |
PSV Eindhoven – last 6
| 8 Aug | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs AZ Alkmaar | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Jul | vs FC Eindhoven | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Jul | vs Union St. Gilloise | 7–3 | W |
| 11 Jul | vs Raków Częstochowa | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More Eredivisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
On our numbers Excelsior have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 15% and PSV Eindhoven 64%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
When is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Woudestein.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.