Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Mandemakers StadionWaalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 prediction & analysis
Waalwijk or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Waalwijk to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Waalwijk 2.2 – 1.0 Jong PSV U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Waalwijk are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for Jong PSV U21.
Waalwijk have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Jong PSV U21 have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.2 for Waalwijk, 1.0 for Jong PSV U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Waalwijk have won 1, Jong PSV U21 have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Waalwijk or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Waalwijk to win at 1.73 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Waalwijk to win ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Waalwijk or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Half-time result | Waalwijk ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.12 | – |
Form
Waalwijk – last 6
| 21 Aug | @ Helmond Sport | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | vs Dordrecht | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Aug | @ Vitesse | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs Kifisia | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Jul | vs Patro Eisden | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Bochum II | 0–2 | L |
Jong PSV U21 – last 6
| 24 Aug | vs FC OSS | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Aug | @ Sunderland U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | @ Almere City FC | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Aug | vs FC Volendam | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs KRC Genk II | 2–4 | L |
| 24 Apr | @ Waalwijk | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 24 Apr 2026 | Waalwijk v Jong PSV U21 | 4–1 |
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21?
Our pick is Waalwijk or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21?
On our numbers Waalwijk have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jong PSV U21 16%.
How many goals will there be in Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21?
Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Mandemakers Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.