Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Sportcomplex De ToekomstJong Ajax vs Helmond Sport prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Jong Ajax 1.9 – 1.7 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Jong Ajax hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 35% for Helmond Sport.
Jong Ajax have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.7 per game. Helmond Sport have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.7 goals (1.9 for Jong Ajax, 1.7 for Helmond Sport). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Jong Ajax have won 1, Helmond Sport have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.51.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Jong Ajax to win ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.57 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 35% | 2.85 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Jong Ajax / FT Jong Ajax ✓ | 26% | 3.78 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.10 | – |
Form
Jong Ajax – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ NAC Breda | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Aug | vs Emmen | 4–6 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ Dordrecht | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Jul | @ Jong AZ | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | vs Jong Utrecht | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Apr | @ Jong PSV U21 | 1–0 | W |
Helmond Sport – last 6
| 21 Aug | vs Waalwijk | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | @ Roda | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs De Graafschap | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs St. Truiden | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Jul | @ Gemert | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Jul | vs AEK Larnaca | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 27 Feb 2026 | Jong Ajax v Helmond Sport | 5–1 |
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers Jong Ajax have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Helmond Sport 35%.
How many goals will there be in Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport?
Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.