Value bet: Dunav Ruse to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSeptemvri Sofia to win ✗42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Septemvri Sofia take on Dunav Ruse on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Dragalevtsi Stadium,. Septemvri Sofia are 12th with 11 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Dunav Ruse sit 10th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Botev Plovdiv 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Dunav Ruse's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Botev Vratsa 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.3 for Dunav Ruse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Septemvri Sofia 42%, draw 24%, Dunav Ruse 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Dunav Ruse to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Dunav Ruse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Septemvri Sofia42%fair 2.35 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Dunav Ruse34%fair 2.94 · @3.25
2.75Expected goals
1.47Septemvri Sofia xG
1.28Dunav Ruse xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Septemvri Sofia 1.5 – 1.3 Dunav Ruse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Septemvri Sofia to win✗
42%
2.35
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Septemvri Sofia / FT Septemvri Sofia✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.66
–
Form
Septemvri Sofia – last 6
LLLDWW
19 Sep
vs Botev Plovdiv
0–3
L
14 Sep
@ Ludogorets
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Botev Vratsa
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Slavia Sofia
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs CSKA 1948
1–0
W
17 Aug
@ Spartak Varna
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Dunav Ruse – last 6
DLLDLW
19 Sep
vs Botev Vratsa
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ CSKA 1948
1–2
L
7 Sep
vs Slavia Sofia
0–1
L
31 Aug
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
21 Aug
@ Cherno More Varna
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse.
What is the prediction for Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
On our numbers Septemvri Sofia have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dunav Ruse 34%.
How many goals will there be in Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
Our predicted score is Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Dunav Ruse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse (First League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Dragalevtsi Stadium,.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
