Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Levski Sofia travel to Ticha Stadium in the First League on Sunday 11 October (15:30 WAT) to face Cherno More Varna. Cherno More Varna are 9th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Levski Sofia sit 2nd on 32 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cherno More Varna's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Ludogorets 0–5 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Levski Sofia's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Red Bull Salzburg 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Levski Sofia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Cherno More Varna and 2.0 for Levski Sofia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cherno More Varna 14%, draw 26%, Levski Sofia 61%.
Safer route: Levski Sofia or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.15.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.82, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cherno More Varna 1–2 Levski Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cherno More Varna14%fair 7.35 · @5.00
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.30
Levski Sofia61%fair 1.65 · @1.62
2.95Expected goals
0.92Cherno More Varna xG
2.03Levski Sofia xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 0.9 – 2.0 Levski Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Levski Sofia to win✓
61%
1.65
1.62
Double chance
Levski Sofia or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Levski Sofia ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Levski Sofia / FT Levski Sofia✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✓
11%
9.26
–
Form
Cherno More Varna – last 6
LDDLLW
4 Oct
@ Ludogorets
0–5
L
19 Sep
@ Arda Kardzhali
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ CSKA Sofia
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Dunav Ruse
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Levski Sofia – last 6
LDLWWW
17 Sep
vs Red Bull Salzburg
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Botev Vratsa
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs CSKA Sofia
2–4
L
5 Sep
vs CSKA 1948
1–0
W
2 Sep
@ Slavia Sofia
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Botev Plovdiv
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Levski Sofia 61%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 1–2 Levski Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia (First League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
