U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Cruz Azul or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceCruz Azul or draw ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.34
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX on Monday 12 October, with kick-off at 02:15 (WAT) at Estadio Olímpico Universitario. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 11th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Cruz Azul sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table).
Form guide
U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Atletico San Luis 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Cruz Azul's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Toluca 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Cruz Azul arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 May 2026, finished U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 Cruz Azul. Across their last 3 meetings U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 0, Cruz Azul 1, with 2 draws and 2.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.2 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 2.1 for Cruz Azul. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cruz Azul or draw – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
U.N.A.M. - Pumas22%fair 4.65 · @3.25
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.25
Cruz Azul56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
3.35Expected goals
1.25U.N.A.M. - Pumas xG
2.10Cruz Azul xG
62%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–17%
1–37%
2–26%
From our goals model: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.2 – 2.1 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
Our pick is Cruz Azul or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers U.N.A.M. - Pumas have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cruz Azul 56%.
How many goals will there be in U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olímpico Universitario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
