Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Result1899 Hoffenheim to win ✓77% · @1.11
Double chance1899 Hoffenheim or draw ✓94% · fair 1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim preview and prediction
The match
Erzgebirge Aue host 1899 Hoffenheim in the DFB Pokal on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Erzgebirgsstadion.
Form guide
Erzgebirge Aue's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Chemnitzer FC 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
1899 Hoffenheim's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Tottenham 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 0.9 for Erzgebirge Aue and 3.0 for 1899 Hoffenheim. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Erzgebirge Aue 0–3 1899 Hoffenheim. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Erzgebirge Aue6%fair 17.32 · @17.00
Draw17%fair 5.71 · @7.80
1899 Hoffenheim77%fair 1.30 · @1.11
3.87Expected goals
0.90Erzgebirge Aue xG
2.971899 Hoffenheim xG
56%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–29%
0–39%
1–28%
1–38%
0–47%
0–16%
From our goals model: Erzgebirge Aue 0.9 – 3.0 1899 Hoffenheim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
1899 Hoffenheim to win✓
77%
1.30
1.11
Double chance
1899 Hoffenheim or draw✓
94%
1.06
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Half-time result
1899 Hoffenheim ahead at half-time✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT 1899 Hoffenheim / FT 1899 Hoffenheim✓
56%
1.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
9%
10.84
–
Form
Erzgebirge Aue – last 6
LWWWDL
15 Aug
@ Chemnitzer FC
1–3
L
9 Aug
vs BFC Preussen
2–1
W
6 Aug
vs BFC Dynamo
3–2
W
31 Jul
@ Tasmania Berlin
2–0
W
25 Jul
vs Altglienicke
3–3
D
19 Jul
vs FC Schalke 04
2–4
L
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
1899 Hoffenheim – last 6
DLWWWD
16 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Tottenham
0–3
L
1 Aug
vs Karlsruher SC
3–0
W
29 Jul
vs Holstein Kiel
3–1
W
18 Jul
@ SGV Freiberg
3–0
W
10 Apr
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erzgebirge Aue and 1899 Hoffenheim.
What is the prediction for Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
On our numbers Erzgebirge Aue have a 6% chance of winning, the draw 17% and 1899 Hoffenheim 77%.
How many goals will there be in Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our predicted score is Erzgebirge Aue 0–3 1899 Hoffenheim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Erzgebirge Aue vs 1899 Hoffenheim (DFB Pokal) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Erzgebirgsstadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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