The Serie A sees AC Milan take on Atalanta on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). AC Milan are 4th with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Atalanta sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
AC Milan's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Atalanta's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Pafos 3–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for AC Milan and 0.9 for Atalanta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AC Milan 58%, draw 21%, Atalanta 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AC Milan to win – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: AC Milan 1–0 Atalanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AC Milan58%fair 1.74 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.60
Atalanta22%fair 4.62 · @4.00
2.67Expected goals
1.73AC Milan xG
0.94Atalanta xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: AC Milan 1.7 – 0.9 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✓
58%
1.74
1.75
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✓
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.33
–
Form
AC Milan – last 6
WDWLDD
15 Oct
@ Red Bull Salzburg
4–0
W
11 Oct
@ Sassuolo
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Lecce
3–0
W
16 Sep
vs Benfica
0–2
L
12 Sep
@ Lazio
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Juventus
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
WWLLLW
15 Oct
vs Pafos
3–1
W
12 Oct
vs Venezia
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Juventus
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ AS Roma
1–2
L
31 Aug
vs Bologna
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Atalanta.
Our pick is AC Milan to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atalanta 22%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 1–0 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Atalanta?
AC Milan vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
